First week 2009 Flu from CDC

I do not know where the cases in NC are, they sure are not in the western counties, at least not yet. Of course, since VA seems to be getting hit, stand by everyone.

But I think this is pretty much where we were this time last year. The big stuff happened in late January, early February.

Out of the darkness?

It seems the big bad flu is headed away, as it should given the season.

But, look at the second graph. The death rate keeps climbing.

But not here in W North Carolina, that I can tell. We are still busy taking x-rays of sick people, but not insane like it was a month ago.

I suppose sometimes we are ahead of the average, and sometimes we are behind it.

Both graphics, are, of course, from the CDC, here.

Flu 2008--Nearing the end?

Or is this dip this week just a lucky break?

I have to say that the nursing homes I go to which have been hit hardest with the flu/pneumonia are not quite as bad this week. Partly this is due to the sickest dying off or going to hospital, I guess, but there are not as many new, very sick people this week.

This graph from the CDC bears that out. As you can see, there is a dip in the number of cases of positive flu this week.

We are still above epidemic threshold levels for deaths from Pneumonia and Influenza, as this graph shows, but the rate of increase does not appear quite as steep as it has.

All in all, if these trends continue, we should, most of us, see Spring.

Hang in there people. Keep washing your hands. If you are sick, drink lots of fluids. If you are immno-suppressed, keep away from everyone for a while. If you have relatives in nursing homes, and you are sick...please do NOT go see them until you are well.

More on the Flu

This, from the CDC, here, is a pretty good representation of what is going on right now.
All of a sudden, entire nursing homes are filled with really sick people.
You can clearly see we are nearly at the death level from the bad winter of 2005-2006 and we are on track to top the horrendous "SARS" season of 2004-2005.
All I know is the people I X-ray are significantly sicker than they were a week ago, with deep, rasping coughs and outrageous fevers. North Carolina Health and Human Services reports that nearly 5% of those tested are positive for flu, higher than it has been since 2003 when NC hit nearly 8%.
Two things about those numbers strike me, though...
1. The 7.7 high in 2003 was in December, and the exactitude of flu swabs were not as good as they are now, so I suspect there were lots of false positives.
2. The good news is it is not December right now. As spring arrives, it is possible the worst of the epidemic is behind us.
We can hope.

Flu 2008... It's out there

I am hearing more and more about people dying from flu this week.
Although I do work with a very frail population, I am hearing about young, healthy people getting flu and becoming very sick.
Even dying from it.
Or from Tamiflu.
Which I personally would never recommend anyone to take. Too many questions about that medicine for my liking.
And of course, one of the major stockholders in the company that makes it... Donald Rumsfeld. I would rather take my chances with the virus.
But, that's just me.